LOTT: Every place that guns have been banned, murder rates have gone up. You cannot point to one place, whether it's Chicago or whether it's D.C. or whether it's been England of whether it's been Jamaica or Ireland.
MORGAN: I'm sorry, but that's just a complete lie. It's a complete lie. The gun murder rate in Britain is 35 a year, average. You need to stop repeating a blatant lie, about what happens in other countries. . . . You lied about it the other day.After Morgan then claimed multiple times that I had lied, the video then shows that I tried to explain that there is a difference between levels and changes. In an obvious setup, Christiane Amanpour claimed that the murder rate in the UK had initially been flat after the ban and then fell.
Amanpour: After Dunblane, they put in these bans, they put in these punishments, fines, jail sentences, etc. and its true that straight afterwards there wasn't a huge change, but 2002/2003 until 2011 the rate plummeted by 44%.Amanpour was clearly taking about the number of homicides so here is a chart for that (source here). She is right that there were substantial increases in law enforcement activity, which one suspects should have been associated with reduced crime rates, but, even with that, how can she make the claims that she did about homicides?
The change from 1996 to 2003 was as big as the drop since then. If she says that there is no "huge change" between 1996 and 2003 (when there was a 54% increase), how can she say that there is a "plummet" after that? By the way, the average yearly homicides from 1990 to 1996 was 699. For the time period after the ban it was 775, an over 10 percent increase. Clearly homicide rates bounce around over time, but there are only two of the 15 years of data here that they are lower than they were in 1996.
Obviously, guns are involved in more than just homicides or murders. One thing that is clear has been the huge increase in gun crime generally in England and Wales since the gun ban (for similar discussions see here, here, and here). Firearm Offenses involving handguns, rifles and shotguns were falling from 1991 to 1997. At that point, they stopped falling and kept increasing until 2006. The number of firearm offenses in 2011 was still 16 percent higher than in 1996 and the average for 1997 to 2011 was 8,326 or 31 percent higher than in the 1990 to 1996 period.
The discussion on CNN was supposed to be a Townhall where people from different views were in the audience. Instead the people that they brought in from Arizona and Wisconsin and other places were all on the same side. I asked the people in my section if anyone opposed increased gun control regulations and no one said that they did. Several shouted that they wanted to ban all semi-automatic guns.
So here are previous figures that I put together. These figures are from the third edition of More Guns, Less Crime from the University of Chicago Press (2010). Click to make the figures larger. The numbers for the UK are available here in Table 1.01.
Other inform for Ireland and Jamaica.
How about for DC and Chicago (Figures taken from More Guns, Less Crime)?
The raw data for DC over a long period of time is available here (the crime rates are available on the bottom half of the screen). My books The Bias Against Guns looks at crime data for other places including even a police state such as the former Soviet Union and other countries.Now Australia didn't have a complete ban on guns, they didn't even ban all semi-automatic guns, but I have a discussion on the changes in their crime rates here.
Does it look like murder rates fell in any of these places after a ban was enacted?
Here is some other information that might be useful on the two places available here and here.
The International Crime Victimization survey also provides some interesting comparisons on overall violent crime rates across countries. To roughly get the violent crime totals add robbery, sexual incidents, and assaults.
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